Ren Zeping: The stock market ushered in a repair time window around performance reform

Sina Finance App: Live on-line blogger one-on-one guidance Four rounds before the Spring Festival, the red round is better than the fat year.

[Zeping macro] economic L-type, capital improvement, stock market repair-----Founder Macro Weekly

Text: Founder Macro Ren Zeping, Yang Weiwei

Guide

In 2016, the economic L-type ended, in line with our 2015 forecast, the policy shifts from steady growth to risk prevention and reform. It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2017, the economy will be supported by real estate investment, manufacturing investment and export. In the second quarter of this year, it may be doubled by real estate vehicles. Inflation was a high point in the first quarter, and then gradually fell back, generally moderate. We maintain economic L-type, moderate inflation, currency neutrality, bullish gold, stock market ushered in the repair time window around the performance and reform, the bond market adjustment judgment.

Summary

International Economy: The United States welcomes the Trump era, and Draghi slightly shows the doves. The United States ushered in the Trump era, policy-oriented "US priority", "tax reduction + infrastructure" is the core of policy, the first to land trade policy and immigration repatriation issues; Sino-US trade friction may increase, the abolition of the National Health Insurance Act It must be done. Trump pointed out that the US dollar has been "excessively strong" and believes that the rapid depreciation of the renminbi has led to a certain degree of strength in the US dollar, which in turn has damaged the competitiveness of US companies. The European Central Bank announced that it will maintain the three major interest rates and the size of the QE. Draghi’s speech talked about the dovish, saying that the recent inflation rebounded but the potential inflation is still suppressed. If necessary, it is necessary to prepare for the loosening. The global rate of return rose, and most of the external stock markets fell. The dollar index fell and the price of gold rose.

Domestic economy: The economic L-type ended, real estate investment exceeded expectations. In 2016, the actual growth rate of China's economy recorded 6.7%, and the economy maintained L-type throughout the year, maintaining medium-to-high-speed growth. In December, industrial and fixed asset investment fell back to 6% and 8.1%, and the tail effect of consumption tax policy continued to rise to 10.9%. The driving factors of the economy mainly came from the rebound of PPI, which led to the improvement of manufacturing enterprises and the improvement of corporate profits, as well as the demand for first- and second-tier real estate replenishment. The real estate investment in December rebounded to 6.9%, but at the same time, the growth rate of infrastructure construction dropped significantly to 15.7%. . It is expected that the economy will be acceptable in the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter of this year, the real estate car may be dragged down by the real estate car. The inflation in the first quarter is a high point, and then gradually fall back, and the overall temperature is moderate. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production of industrial enterprises has weakened. Power generation coal consumption decreased slightly by 1.3 points year-on-year. Steel prices in January were 66.5% year-on-year, up 1.4 points from last week. Steel prices may continue to rise after the holiday. Cement prices continued to remain stable. Oil prices in the upstream industry were quickly adjusted back due to Brazil's refusal to cut production.

Currency: The central bank maintains a stable liquidity before the holiday. In December, the bank's settlement of foreign exchange settlement and sales was 298.3 billion yuan, which was the second highest in the year. The expansion of the service deficit was the main reason. In December, foreign exchange holdings decreased by 317.8 billion yuan, falling for the 14th consecutive month. The short-term RMB exchange rate was stable, but there was still pressure in the medium term. The root cause was the previous currency overshoot and the return on assets. This week's liquidity tightened, R001 and R007 interest rates rose by 86.4 and 118.1 BP, respectively, the central bank's two-pronged stable liquidity before the holiday, this week's net money in the history of the highest. The central bank initiated temporary liquidity facilities and released about 600 billion yuan in liquidity, which helped to ease the pressure on funds. In the medium term, monetary policy remained neutral.

Policy: Xi Jinping Davos opposes trade protectionism, and Shanghai acts as a leader in mixed reforms. Xi Jinping's Davos Forum speech: The flag is clearly opposed to protectionism. The result of a trade war can only be a combination of both losses, and proposes a "China program" to govern the global economy. The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the Finance Bureau, the Financial Office, and the Securities Regulatory Bureau jointly issued the “Implementation Plan for the First Batch of Pilot Work of Employees' Shareholdings in Local State-owned Holding Mixed Ownership Enterprises”, and the plan clearly supports the higher contribution of talent capital and technical factors. Transformed research institutes, high-tech enterprises, and technology service-oriented enterprises to carry out pilot projects for employee ownership. The State Council approved the 13th Five-Year Plan for the development of the western region. The Plan clearly highlights the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing, and clearly puts forward the strategy of deepening the implementation of the western region during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The State Council has taken measures to expand the opening up and actively use foreign capital. The CSRC stated that it will strictly review the criteria and conditions for refinancing, address the structural problems of non-public offerings and other financing methods, develop convertible bonds and preferred stock varieties, and curb excessive financing of listed companies.

Market: The negative factors are coming down, and the market is welcoming the repair window. In the weekly newspaper "The Twilight", we put forward: "The recent negative factors have begun to decline, the market is welcoming the time window for repair, recommending inflation and reform themes" and the gold investment opportunities brought about by the US dollar correction in the first and second quarters. Two major investment opportunities are coming, as soon as they come. 1) The Trump effect has recently reversed, and the pressure on emerging markets has eased; the fundamentals of the stock market have been solid, the public credit has exceeded expectations, exports have continued to improve, and the PPI has rebounded to drive manufacturing companies to replenish their warehouses and improve corporate profits, and the demand for first- and second-tier real estate replenishment Driven by December, real estate investment exceeded expectations; the economy was temporarily stabilized in the short term; the capacity was expanded and the central bank increased its liquidity, and the money went down. It is expected that the stock market will focus on the three main lines of inflation, reform and oversold growth stocks. The industries that benefit from inflation and interest rate insensitivity include agriculture, food and beverage, utilities, petrochemicals, banks, gold, etc. Transfer, seed), state-owned enterprises mixed reform, PPP, military, de-capacity expansion, all the way and other reform themes. 2) In the near term, the funds are tightly balanced, inflation is rising, and the bond market still needs to wait, but the money is falling, and it is no longer necessary to be overly pessimistic. Economic inflation may return to the downtrend channel around the 2-3 quarter, which will provide a fundamental environment for the bond market. 3) On January 20th, Trump will officially enter the White House. Considering Trump's “Infrastructure + Tax Reduction + Anti-Immigrant” new policy will face many uncertainties, the market will correct expectations, and gold may have opportunities in 1-2 quarters. . 4) The housing market adjustment is expected to continue until the end of 2017-2018, and the future real estate investment correction may not be deep.

Risk warning: exchange rate depreciation causes capital outflow to be out of control; real estate regulation is overkill; currency is too tight; Fed raises interest rate; reform is lower than expected; debt risk.

table of Contents

1International Economy: The United States welcomes the Trump era, Draghi slightly doves

1.1 US priority, trade wars and immigration issues bear the brunt

1.2 Trump’s statement: the dollar is over-stretched

1.3 The European Central Bank does not move, Draghi speaks a little dovish

1.4 Global rate of return rose, gold prices rose

2 Domestic economy: economic L-type ending, real estate investment exceeded expectations

2.1 Real estate investment exceeded expectations, economic L type

2.2 Real estate declines slowly, passenger car sales pick up before the holiday

3 Price: The Spring Festival is approaching, food prices are rising

4 Currency: The central bank maintains a stable liquidity before the holiday

4.1 Residents exchange foreign exchange, the settlement deficit is high, and the funds face continues to be tight.

4.2 The central bank initiates temporary liquidity facilities, and the medium-term monetary policy remains neutral

4.3 The central bank maintains a stable liquidity before the holiday

5 Policy: Shanghai acts as a leader in mixed reforms, Xi Jinping Davos opposes trade protectionism

5.1 Shanghai acts as a leader in mixed reforms, and the local mixed change breaks through the ice.

5.2 The State Council approved the 13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Western Region

5.3 Xi Jinping Davos Forum Speech: The result of a clear-cut against protectionism and trade war can only be both loses

5.4 The State Council has taken measures to expand the opening up and actively use foreign capital

5.5 The CSRC will adjust the refinancing system to curb excessive financing

6 Market: Negative factors ebb, the market ushered in repair window

text

1 International Economy: The United States welcomes the Trump era, Draghi slightly doves

The United States ushered in the Trump era, policy-oriented "US priority", "tax reduction + infrastructure" is the core of policy, the first to land trade policy and immigration repatriation issues; Sino-US trade friction may increase, the abolition of the National Health Insurance Act It must be done. Trump pointed out that the US dollar has been "excessively strong" and believes that the rapid depreciation of the renminbi has led to a certain degree of strength in the US dollar, which in turn has damaged the competitiveness of US companies. The European Central Bank announced that it will maintain the three major interest rates and the size of the QE. Draghi’s speech talked about the dovish, saying that the recent inflation rebounded but the potential inflation is still suppressed. If necessary, it is necessary to prepare for the loosening. The global rate of return rose, and most of the external stock markets fell. The dollar index fell and the price of gold rose.

1.1 US priority, trade wars and immigration issues bear the brunt

Event: On January 20th, Trump delivered an inaugural speech and officially performed the US President.

Comments:

The core point of view: The United States is welcoming the Trump era and its policy orientation is "US priority." Although the inaugural speech did not reveal policy details, Trump’s policy promised during the campaign has begun to become clear. The core of Trump's policy is the fiscal stimulus of “tax reduction + infrastructure”, but the order of policy implementation may be different depending on the difficulty of different policies being approved by Congress. The first to land is the trade policy and the issue of immigration repatriation. Regardless of the situation, the trade war is inevitable, Sino-US trade frictions may increase, and the immigration wall is not mentioned in the inaugural speech, and uncertainty is still there. After taking office, Trump plans to improve the lives of Americans by adding employment rather than improving social welfare. Therefore, it is imperative to abolish the National Health Insurance Act. The tax reform involves a debt ceiling adjustment, and it is likely to start with the most easily approved corporate tax. Employment-oriented infrastructure reconstruction is concentrated in the transportation infrastructure. The Sino-US infrastructure resonance will drive demand for commodities and help the US economy recover. On the diplomatic front, the US's global strategic layout will be adjusted under the stand of isolationism, and a comprehensive attack on ISIS may lead to a surge in military spending.

The core of Trump's policy is still the fiscal stimulus of “tax reduction + infrastructure”, but the order of governance may be different according to the difficulty of obtaining approval from the government. The first thing to do is trade policy and resettlement. In the speech, the order of policy mentioned was trade, taxation, immigration, and diplomacy. First, the law gives the president a decree that can be implemented without the consent of the Congress, including trade policies and immigration policies that do not require financial support. Trump may first raise tariffs on the grounds of a trade deficit. If further trade wars are required, the major trading countries (mainly China) will be identified as the currency control countries in the International Economic and Exchange Rate Policy Report in April this year. In terms of immigration policy, Trump may start to tighten immigration policies from expelling illegal immigrant offenders, and the Immigration Wall is not mentioned in the inaugural speech. As the anti-immigration policy affects the growth rate of the US labor force, this will affect the medium- and long-term economic growth of the United States.

Trump relies on new jobs rather than improving social welfare to improve the lives of Americans. It is imperative to abolish the National Health Insurance Act. Raising public welfare is the tradition of the Democratic Party, while the Republican Party's concept of governing the country is a small government, mainly based on tax reduction and deregulation. This means that Trump, like the former Republican president, will shrink his social welfare spending to support his fiscal expansion policy after he took office. Because Trump wants to abolish Obama's universal health insurance bill must be carried out by the end of January or February, the resistance encountered is the smallest, so the first step in the reduction of social welfare is to abolish universal health insurance.

Trump's tax system reform should start with corporate tax, and the premise of individual tax adjustment is the increase in the debt ceiling. In the "Trump Policy Effect Outlook", we mentioned that it is more likely to pass the tax reform bill in the case of budget adjustment (ie, without increasing the deficit). The base of US corporate tax (about $340 billion) is significantly lower than the tax ($1.5 trillion), and it is easier to agree on the reform of corporate tax in a budget-adjusted manner. Due to the large tax base, once the tax rate is lowered, the fiscal deficit will inevitably rise, which involves the expansion of the debt ceiling. Although the debt ceiling is expanded by a simple majority, the cost of expanding the deficit in the upward phase of the interest rate cycle is significantly higher. During the Obama era, it was difficult to get approval.

Trump's infrastructure reconstruction is concentrated in the transportation infrastructure sector, and commodity price increases are expected to heat up. If infrastructure investment is to attract private capital through tax incentives, it will not significantly increase government spending and the size of the deficit, and it is more likely to be approved in Congress. The speech mentioned that “the infrastructure has been in disrepair for a long time and has been abandoned for a long time”. In the future, it will focus on the construction of transportation infrastructure such as roads, highways, bridges, airports, tunnels and railways, which will benefit the demand for bulk commodities. China will also increase the number of infrastructure-based PPPs in 2017. The Sino-US infrastructure resonance will drive demand for commodities represented by copper. On the other hand, due to years of disrepair, the growth of backward capital capital stocks has slowed down US economic growth. If Trump's infrastructure investment maintains strong growth, it is conducive to the recovery of the US economy.

Trump’s foreign policy insists on “taking me first” and the global strategy will be adjusted. Trump bluntly stated that "all countries have the right to take their own interests first." He believes that "the United States has given aid to other countries' troops, but has turned a blind eye to the loss of its military power." Therefore, Trump has the possibility of strategic contraction, and the East Asian pattern will be reshuffled, which will benefit China's Belt and Road layout and benefit China. Industry transfer and trade growth in the region. On the other hand, he called for "the establishment of a new alliance, the countries of the civilized world will unite to resist radical Islamic terrorism (ISIS), we will remove them from the surface of the earth." Here are two possible information: first The fight against terrorism will not be unilateral. The second is that the comprehensive strike against ISIS is likely to be a protracted war and a surge in military spending.

1.2 Trump’s statement: the dollar is over-stretched

The Wall Street Journal published an interview with Trump on January 17. Trump pointed out that the dollar has been "excessively strong" and that American companies have lost their competitive edge. "A strong dollar is pushing us into the abyss."

Trump also mentioned the RMB exchange rate, which believes that the rapid depreciation of the renminbi has led to a certain degree of strength in the US dollar, which in turn undermines the competitiveness of US companies. Trump consultant Scaramucci also said that it is necessary to pay enough attention to the strong dollar.

In order to strengthen the economic status of the United States in the world, in addition to focusing on the dollar, Trump also focused on the adjustment of border taxes. The move is intended to encourage companies to recruit and produce in the United States and promote the development of US manufacturing by taxing imported products and exempting US companies from export taxes. But when talking to the Wall Street Journal about the border tax adjustment proposed by the House Republican Party, Trump criticized it as "too complicated."

1.3 The European Central Bank does not move, Draghi speaks a little dovish

On January 19th, the ECB's interest rate decision was basically in line with expectations. The European Central Bank announced that it would maintain the three major interest rates and QE scale. After the European Central Bank President Draghi's speech talked about the dovish, the euro fell once and fell.

At this meeting, the European Central Bank maintained the main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.0%, maintaining the overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.25%, and maintaining the overnight deposit rate unchanged at -0.4%, in line with expectations. The ECB interest rate will remain at current or lower levels until the end of QE and will maintain a monthly QE size of 80 billion euros until the end of March, from April to December will be 60 billion euros per month.

After the meeting, Draghi made a speech denying that the ECB discussed reducing stimulus, saying that inflation has rebounded in the near future but potential inflation is still suppressed. If necessary, it is necessary to prepare for the loosening. Reiterate that QE will continue to operate until the inflation path is consistent with the target. The European Central Bank has made details on the purchase of bonds with yields below the deposit rate.

1.4 Global rate of return rose, gold prices rose

Global yields rose, and most of the external stock markets fell. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 7bp to 2.47%, the 10-year eurozone bond yield rose to 0.357%, and the 10-year Chinese government bond yield rose 4.2bp to 3.24%. The Dow Jones index fell 0.29%; the German DAX index rose slightly by 0.01% this week, the French CAC 40 index fell 1.46% this week, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.9% this week, the Nikkei 225 index fell 0.77%; Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Week The chain fell by 0.22%, the Mumbai Sensex30 index fell by 0.75%, and the Korea Composite Index fell by 0.54%.

The dollar index fell and the price of gold rose. The US dollar index fell 0.37% to 100.81, the dollar fell 0.26% to 6.882 against the yuan; the euro rose 0.41% to 1.069 against the dollar, the dollar rose slightly by 0.03% to 114.53 against the yen, and the pound appreciated 1.48% against the dollar to 1.237, the Australian dollar against the US dollar It rose 0.68% to 0.755. COMEX gold prices rose 1.17% to $1210.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices fell 4.87% to $16.14 per ounce.

2 Domestic economy: economic L-type ending, real estate investment exceeded expectations

In 2016, the actual growth rate of China's economy recorded 6.7%, and the economy maintained L-type throughout the year, maintaining medium-to-high-speed growth. In December, industrial and fixed asset investment fell back to 6% and 8.1%, and the tail effect of consumption tax policy continued to rise to 10.9%. The driving factors mainly came from the rebound of PPI, which led to the improvement of manufacturing enterprises' replenishment and corporate profits, and the demand for first- and second-line real estate replenishment led to a rebound in real estate investment in December, which was more than expected to rise to 6.9%, but at the same time dragged down the infrastructure growth rate to 15.7%. It is expected that the economy will be acceptable in the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter of this year, the real estate car may be dragged down by the real estate car. The inflation in the first quarter is a high point, and then gradually fall back, and the overall temperature is moderate. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production of industrial enterprises has weakened. Power generation coal consumption decreased slightly by 1.3 points year-on-year. Steel prices in January were 66.5% year-on-year, up 1.4 points from last week. Steel prices may continue to rise after the holiday. Cement prices continued to remain stable. Oil prices in the upstream industry were quickly adjusted back due to Brazil's refusal to cut production.

2.1 Real estate investment exceeded expectations, economic L type

Event: China's fourth quarter GDP was 6.8%, expected 6.7%, and the previous value was 6.7%. In December, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.0%, 6.1%, and the previous value was 6.2%. China's urban fixed asset investment in December totaled 8.1% year-on-year, with an expected 8.3% and a previous value of 8.3%. China's total retail sales of consumer goods in December was 10.9% year-on-year, with an expected 10.7% and a previous value of 10.8%.

Comments:

Core point of view: In 2016, the economy was L-shaped and the economic structure improved. In December, industrial and fixed-asset investment fell back, and consumption was driven back by the tail effect of the purchase tax policy. The driving factors mainly came from the rebound of PPI, which led to the improvement of manufacturing enterprises' replenishment and corporate profits, and the demand for first- and second-line real estate replenishment to drive real estate investment exceeded expectations in December, but at the same time dragged down by the slowdown in infrastructure growth. The growth rate of real estate investment in December exceeded expectations, up 9.2 points from November. The continued high sales of excavators and heavy trucks indicates that the real estate investment caused by regulation has been limited. After the real estate era, the mortgage contracted, the bank increased the PPP loan to the infrastructure; the supply cleared, and the corporate profit improved. In 2017, the economy entered the L-shaped bottoming stage, prices were moderately inflationary, corporate performance improved, and the policy turned to promote reform and risk prevention. At the same time, we must be alert to the trade impact of Trump's policy on China.

In the 16 years of China's economic L-type, the economic structure improved, and warned of the impact of the trade war against Trump after Trump took office. In the past 16 years, the actual growth rate of China's economy recorded a 6.7%, and the economy maintained its L-shape throughout the year, maintaining a medium-to-high-speed growth. Among them, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP in 16 years was 64.6%, 4.7 percentage points higher than that in 15 years, and the economic structure was further improved. The nominal GDP growth rate was 8.0%, the GDP deflator was 1.2%, and the overall price increase was significant. In the 16 years, exports have been improved by the improvement of external demand and the continued depreciation of the renminbi. This year, we must be wary of Trump’s trade war with China after taking office. Once Trump declares that China is the currency control country, export trade will be affected.

Production in December fell across the board, and industrial added value fell year-on-year. Industrial added value in December was 6.0% year-on-year, down 0.2 points from December. In terms of categories, the mining industry fell by 2.3 points from the previous month; the manufacturing industry fell by 0.4 points year-on-year; the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries fell by 1.9 points. In terms of industries, 33 industries maintained year-on-year growth. Among them, high-end equipment manufacturing, which is dominated by general-purpose equipment, special equipment and automobile manufacturing, maintained a high growth rate, except for the growth rate of computer, communications and electronics manufacturing, which rose by 4.6 points. The growth rate of most industries has dropped from last month. The added value of black, non-ferrous smelting and chemical industry was affected by the recent increase in environmental protection pressure, and the growth rate dropped significantly, dropping 5.8, 1.6 and 2.3 points respectively. The industrial decline in the Northeast continued to narrow, rising by 2.1 points in December from the previous month.

In December, infrastructure investment fell more than real estate investment and manufacturing investment, and fixed asset investment fell. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in December was 8.1%, down by 0.2 points from January to November. Among them, from January to November, real estate development investment was 6.9%, up 0.4 points from January to November, and 1.1 points faster than the previous three quarters; manufacturing investment increased by 4.2%, and the growth rate was 0.6 higher than that in January-November. The total investment in infrastructure construction increased by 15.7% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 1.5 points from January to November, and the year-on-year growth rate was 5.2%, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of 13.7% in November. The total investment of the construction project plan increased by 10% compared with the previous year, and the growth rate increased by 0.9 points from January to November; the total investment of the newly started project was basically flat last month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 points.

Ample funds and enthusiasm for land use indicate that property demand is not weak, and property investment in December rebounded more than expected. In December, real estate investment grew by 11.1% in the month, up 5.4 points from November. The construction area increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.3 points from January to November. The new construction area of ​​houses increased by 8.1% year-on-year in December, and the growth rate increased by 0.5 points. The monthly growth rate was 12.5%, compared with November. Increase 9.2 points. The accumulated sources of real estate development funds recorded a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, an increase of 0.2 points from the previous period. At the same time, the land purchase area decreased continuously year-on-year. Our previous point of view pointed out that due to the demand for replenishment of real estate enterprises in first- and second-tier regions, there is limited room for the decline in real estate investment driven by regulation and control. The recent high sales volume of construction machinery represented by excavators and heavy trucks indicates the investment in infrastructure and real estate in the later period. Will not fall too far.

Driven by the recovery of the manufacturing industry and the unexpected increase in real estate investment, the growth rate of private investment rebounded slightly. In the past 16 years, private investment has increased by 3.2% year-on-year, which is 0.13 points higher than that in January-November and has risen for the fifth consecutive month. In terms of industries, the rebound in private growth was mainly from the secondary industry, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 points from January to November. In December, manufacturing investment continued to pick up and real estate investment exceeded expectations, driving private investment to continue to increase. In terms of regions, the growth rates in the eastern, western and central regions fell by 0.2, 0.5 and 0.1 respectively, while the decline in the northeast region, the main region where the private investment growth rate stalled in the previous period, continued to narrow by 1.6 points.

Affected by the tail effect of the purchase tax policy, the consumption name rose slightly. The actual growth rate after inflation adjustment was flat in November. In December, the nominal growth rate of consumption was 10.9%, up 0.1 points from November; the actual growth rate was 9.2%, unchanged from November. Among them, catering revenue increased by 10.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 points; commodity retail sales growth rate of 10.9%, unchanged in November; affected by the 2017 purchase tax concessions, December auto-expenditure consumption; car consumption in the limit consumption of 14.4% , up 1.3 points. The rise in oil prices also led to an increase in consumption of oil products, which was an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. Double 12 promotions have continued to increase the daily necessities and cosmetics. Due to the decline in the purchase tax concessions and the end of the real estate cycle, auto and real estate related consumption is still facing the risk of falling.

2.2 Real estate declines slowly, passenger car sales pick up before the holiday

Downstream: Real estate has slowed down, and sales of passenger cars have picked up before the holiday. In the third week of January, the sales volume of 30 large and medium-sized cities was 10.3% higher than that of the previous week, down 13.2 points from last week. Among them, the first, second and third tier cities fell by -22.3%, -3.3% and -13.2% respectively. As of January 19, the sales area of ​​the city's real estate in January decreased by 18.2% year-on-year, an increase of 4.9 points from the previous year's decline. Among them, the first, second and third tier cities were -23.3%, -9.8% and -25.9%, respectively, which were lower than last week's -4.5%, -9.1% and -22.9%. The land acquisition area decreased continuously year-on-year. Last week, the land transaction area of ​​100 large and medium-sized cities continued to increase by 21.4%. The land supply area of ​​first-tier cities has increased to 1.77 million square meters, and the supply area of ​​other cities has decreased slightly. Real estate investment rebounded more than expected in December, up 9.2 points from November. The high sales volume of excavators and heavy trucks in the early stage also indicates that the real estate investment will not fall too far. Due to the strong inventory demand of developers in the first and second tier cities, it is expected that the new construction will show a good year-on-year growth after the Spring Festival.

The retail market of the auto market is mixed. According to data released by the National Federation of Passengers, the retail sales of passenger cars in the first week and the second week of January were -1% and 19%, respectively, and the cumulative growth rate of retail sales in 1-2 weeks was 9%. In the first week of this month, the wholesale of passenger cars increased by 26% year-on-year, and the wholesale volume in the second week increased by 10%. At the end of 2016, due to the expected adjustment of the purchase tax concession for 17 years, the passenger car has the possibility of overdraft consumption at the end of the year, which led to the retail growth rate at the beginning of this year is significantly lower than last year. On the other hand, the car dealers have low inventory due to the hot sales last year, so Wholesale growth is still relatively high, but the sustainability is weak.

Textile and apparel demand weakened, but driven by soaring chemical prices, the price of textile raw materials rose more than the price of finished products. Keqiao Textile Index was 1.21% in January, slightly better than 1.11% in December of 16 years. The raw material and grey cloth prices increased by 3.8% and 1.4% respectively in January, an increase of 1.5 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The prices of finished products represented by home textiles and apparel fabrics fell by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year.

The box office market continued to be sluggish this week. The box office receipts and movie watching figures were -19.5% and -18.3%, respectively, up 5.3 and 6.3 percentage points from last week. The film screenings were -1.9% lower than the previous week, down 1.3 points from last week. Movie box office receipts and movie viewings and screenings were -14.1%, 13.3%, and 33.2%, respectively, down from last week.

Export demand continued to pick up slightly. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) grew by 48.4% year-on-year in January, up 0.5 points from 47.9% in December. The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 9.1% in January, an increase of 0.6 from December. Percentage points. This round of export recovery benefited from the depreciation of the RMB and the improvement of the external demand environment. In the first quarter of 17th, we must be alert to the trade war with China after Trump took office.

Midstream: Power consumption and coal consumption fell slightly, and steel prices rose. This week, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups decreased by 2.6% from the previous month, a decrease of 1.5 points from last week. As of January 19, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generations was 685,000 tons, up from 620,800 tons in the same period in December. This week's average daily power consumption increased by 11.7% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 1.6 points from last week's 13.3%. Industrial production was relatively stable in January.

The proportion of profitable steel mills this week was 74.2%, an increase of 3.1 points from last week. The blast furnace operating rate was 73.9%, an increase of 1.5 points from last week. This week, rebar prices rose 2.1% this week, up 2.3 percentage points from last week. January rebar prices were 66.5% year-on-year, up 1.4 points from last week and down from 76.5% in December. The China Steel Industry Association's 2017 Board of Directors has reported that the central government has clearly eliminated the elimination of backward production capacity, especially the thorough cleaning of “strip steel” as an important part of this year's capacity-removal work, which is likely to result in the phased supply of construction steel in the first half of the year. In short supply, steel prices may continue to rise after the holiday.

Cement prices remain stable. This week, the national cement price index fell slightly by 0.18% from the previous month. The cement price in January was 29.6% year-on-year, down 0.2 points from last week and higher than 28.6% in December.

Upstream: Trump suppressed the dollar, and Brazil refused to cut production and dragged down oil prices. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said that the US dollar has been "excessively strong", causing US companies to lose their competitive edge. "A strong dollar is pushing us into the abyss." The market worried about a renewed warming, the US dollar index fell 0.1% this week, 2.8% in January, down 0.4 percentage points from last week, down from 3.7% in December.

This week, CRB industrial raw materials index was -0.4%, up 22.0% in January, up 0.4 percentage points from last week, down from 23.1% in December. The South China Industrial Products Index was -1.8%, compared with 69.8% in January, up 2.8 percentage points from last week, down from 73.4% in December. The South China Agricultural Products Index was 1.2%, compared with 22.3% in January, up 0.9 from last week. The percentage point is lower than December's 23.6% year-on-year.

Following the surge in US shale oil production, Brazil has rejected the Saudi Arabian production cut request, and questions about whether the OPEC production reduction agreement can resolve the contradiction between supply and demand in the crude oil market. After Brazil’s voice, oil prices fell rapidly. This week, Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.3% month-on-month, compared with 73.6% in January, down 0.9 percentage points from last week, significantly higher than December's 41.2%.

The growth rate of non-ferrous metals has slowed down. LME copper prices were -1.5% on a week-on-week basis, compared with 27.1% in January, up 1.4 percentage points from last week and up from 22.4% in December. LME aluminum prices were 2.3% on a week-on-week basis, compared with 19.0% in January, up 2.0 percentage points from last week and 15.8% from December. LME zinc price was 1.4% on a week-on-week basis, compared with 76.5% in January, up 2.7 percentage points from last week and up from 75.5% from December.

This week, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.5% from the previous month and 142.5% from January, down 1.1 percentage points from last week, significantly higher than December's 102.1%.

3 Price: The Spring Festival is approaching, food prices are rising

The temperature turned cold and the Spring Festival approached, and the price of vegetables rose. This week, the average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture rose by 4.6%, the Qianhai Vegetable Wholesale Price Index rose by 4.6%, and the vegetable wholesale price index in Shandong rose by 12.3%. The average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables for monitoring in the Ministry of Agriculture, the Qianhai Vegetable Wholesale Price Index and the vegetable wholesale price index in Shandong were 0.6%, 0.7% and 5.9% respectively in January, up 0.7, 0.7 and 1.1 respectively from last week. The percentage points are lower than, lower than and higher than 5.1%, 7.5% and 5.4% in December.

As the Spring Festival approaches, pork demand is booming. The average wholesale price of pork in the Ministry of Agriculture rose by 1.2% this week, up 2.2% year-on-year in January, up 0.6 percentage points from last week and down from 3.2% in December. The average retail price of pork in 36 cities was unchanged from last week, up 5.9% year-on-year in January, up 0.1 percentage point from last week and down from 6.3% in December. The average retail price of beef and mutton in 36 cities was -0.9% and -1.7% in January, respectively, lower than and above -0.5% and -3.3% in December. The average retail price of grass carp and carp in 36 cities was 3.1% and 1.2% respectively in January, higher than and lower than 2.8% and 1.9% in December.

4 Currency: The central bank maintains a stable liquidity before the holiday

In December, the bank's settlement of foreign exchange settlement and sales was 298.3 billion yuan, which was the second highest in the year. The expansion of the service deficit was the main reason. In December, foreign exchange holdings decreased by 317.8 billion yuan, falling for the 14th consecutive month. The short-term RMB exchange rate was stable, but there was still pressure in the medium term. The root cause was the previous currency overshoot and the return on assets. This week's liquidity tightened, R001 and R007 interest rates rose by 86.4 and 118.1 BP, respectively, the central bank's two-pronged stability before the holiday liquidity, this week's net money in the history of the highest. The central bank initiated temporary liquidity facilities and released about 600 billion yuan in liquidity, which helped to ease the pressure on funds. In the medium term, monetary policy remained neutral.

4.1 Residents exchange foreign exchange, the settlement deficit is high, and the funds face continues to be tight.

Event: China's December bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange was the second highest in the year: the bank's settlement of foreign exchange settlement and sales in December was 298.3 billion yuan, and the November deficit was 186.1 billion yuan. In December, the bank's settlement and sales deficit was 320.3 billion yuan (US$46.3 billion), and the November deficit was 228.4 billion yuan.

Comments:

From the data point of view, the capital outflow pressure in the first quarter of 2016 was the biggest, and then eased; the December settlement and sale of foreign exchange and the settlement and sale of customers on behalf of customers increased compared with November, and the expansion of service deficit was the main reason. In the bank settlement and sales data, the first quarter deficit was 124.8 billion US dollars, the second quarter was 49 billion US dollars, the third quarter was 69.6 billion US dollars, and the fourth quarter was 94.3 billion US dollars. Valet foreign-related payments were 11.23 billion, 56.5 billion, 85.5 billion, and 51 billion US dollars. Residents exchange foreign exchange, the settlement of foreign exchange is the second highest, the external share is narrowed, the external reserve is declining, the central bank is de-leveraging, and the recent funding is continuing to be tight.

Foreign exchange holdings decreased by 317.8 billion yuan in December, falling for the 14th consecutive month. It indicated that at the beginning of the year, under the expectation of RMB depreciation, the seasonal factors were superimposed, the willingness to market exchanges was weakened, and the willingness to purchase foreign exchange increased. The central bank intervened in the short-term exchange rate rebound. At present, the market's trend toward the exchange rate has diverged, and the foreign exchange holdings have fallen slightly less than November.

Recently, the foreign exchange reserves have been declining. The person in charge of the foreign exchange bureau said, "From the perspective of the whole year of 2016, the central bank's stability of the RMB exchange rate is the main reason for the decline in the size of foreign exchange reserves." In the second half of December, the stability of the RMB against the US dollar and the rebound of the January yuan, plus the government's strengthening of foreign exchange controls and expected management, the short-term RMB exchange rate is stable, but there is still pressure in the medium term. The root cause of the depreciation of the renminbi is the previous currency overshoot and the decline in the return on assets (a large amount of funds are allocated to non-trade sectors - real estate).

4.2 The central bank initiates temporary liquidity facilities, and the medium-term monetary policy remains neutral

Event: The central bank provided temporary liquidity support for several large commercial banks with a high proportion of cash delivery through the “temporary liquidity convenience” operation to ensure the concentrated demand for cash before the Spring Festival. The operation period is 28 days, and the capital cost It is roughly the same as the open market operating rate for the same period.

Comments:

The core point of view: due to the decline in external share, the withdrawal of the Spring Festival, the payment of taxes by enterprises, the replenishment of statutory deposit reserves, the de-leverage of the bond market, etc., the funds continue to be tight, but the central bank is reluctant to implement RRR cuts, etc. The signal is too strong, but the 28-day temporary liquidity facility is launched, which is equivalent to temporarily providing liquidity to the market and recovering after 28 days. In the short term, the launch of temporary liquidity facilities will help to ease the pressure on funds; in the medium term, monetary policy will remain neutral. Before the Spring Festival, the liquidity problem can be partially alleviated; after the Spring Festival, a large amount of liquidity will expire and the funds will still be tightly balanced.

历史上首次的“定向定时降准”，央行称之为“临时流动性便利”操作。具体来看，只涉及到工农中建交五大行，定向降准1个百分点，各家分批分次，操作期限28天，资金成本与同期限公开市场操作利率大致相同。预计可以释放6000亿左右的资金，相当于央行对五大行进行了一次无抵押6000亿元逆回购操作。春节之后，期限来临，央行可能会继续实施公开市场操作。

前期资金面持续偏紧。央行公开市场本周净投放11300亿元，创单周净投放历史新高，其中周二净投放2700亿元，为一年来最高。但SHIBOR利率连续六天全面上涨，其中3个月SHIBOR利率到3.8213%，为2015年5月7日以来高点。公开市场操作对缓解市场流动性紧张局面效力有限，且面临着抵押券的限制。近期美元走弱，人民币相对美元走强，也为央行采取“临时流动性便利”的新货币政策工具提供时机。未来资金面再次紧张，央行可能会继续使用这一工具。

这次临时的流动性管理政策主要是由于季节性因素，春节前提现、企业缴税、补缴法定存款准备金、外占下降等，资金面紧张超预期。近期面对人民币贬值预期，外占连续14个月下滑，结售汇逆差今年次高，外汇储备接近3万亿大关。同时，政策去杠杠、债市解杠杆导致银行间流动性偏紧，债市巨震，股市殃及池鱼。

4.3 央行双管齐下维持节前流动性稳定

钱荒退潮后，市场流动性维持紧平衡。随着春节临近，资金面又开始收紧，银行间利率持续上行。央行为了维持节前的流动性稳定，双管齐下，不仅通过公共市场操作大量投放流动性，更是在1月20日通过“临时流动性便利”操作这一新型创新工具为大型商行提供临时流动性支持。考虑到人民币维稳、房市调控等制约因素，该工具操作期限28天，央行目的明确，只为缓解短期流动性紧张。

央行在1月20日公告：为保障春节前现金投放的集中性需求，促进银行体系流动性和货币市场平稳运行，人民银行通过“临时流动性便利”操作为在现金投放中占比高的几家大型商业银行提供了临时流动性支持，操作期限28天，资金成本与同期限公开市场操作利率大致相同。这一操作可通过市场机制更有效地实现流动性的传导。

本周央行公开市场操作货币投放13800亿元，回笼2500亿元，净投放11300亿元，为史上最大单周净投放，其中周二净投放2700亿元，为一年来最高。截至1月20日，1天期银行间回购加权利率为2.9740%，较上周上升了86.45个BP；7天期银行间回购加权利率为3.5660%，较上周上升了118.07个BP。1年期国债收益率为2.6413%，较上周下降了4.53个BP；10年期国债收益率为3.2440%，较上周上升了4.18个BP。

本周不同期限的信用利差扩大，1年期AAA企业债的信用利差扩大了21.41个BP，10年期AAA企业债的信用利差扩大了1.07个BP。

人民币汇率贬值稍缓。1月第3周美元兑人民币中间价升值0.31%，美元兑人民币即期汇率升值0.36%，离岸人民币贬值0.10%。

5 政策：上海充当混改排头兵，习近平达沃斯反对贸易保护主义

5.1 上海充当混改排头兵，地方混改破冰突破

事件：2017年1月，上海市国资委、财政局、金融办、证监局联合印发《关于本市地方国有控股混合所有制企业员工持股首批试点工作实施方案》，上海市将遴选5-10家企业开展首批试点。

Comments:

上海混改再迈进，前沿地区继续突破。试点方案的推出意味着上海市混合所有制改革将加速推进，在原有国企改革基础上，继续深化推进混合所有制改革。据国家发改委官方网站，发改委经济体制综合改革司司长徐善长表示，推进国有企业混合所有制改革试点的过程中，一是要完善治理，二是强化激励，包括聘任的经理人员的薪酬待遇问题，职工持股问题等等一些激励措施都要充分考虑。

上海是国企改革的排头兵，上海的国企改革步伐一直走在前沿。2013年12月17日，上海出台《关于进一步深化上海国资改革促进企业发展的意见》，即“上海国企改革20条”，在全国率先启动新一轮国企改革。2014年以来，上海通过并购重组、资产注入、整体上市等方式进行改革的国企数量众多，通过核心或整体上市来引进战略投资者，推动混改，并加强国企和自贸区的联动，优化国资布局，推动产业调整。

本次方案试点企业应同时满足以下几个条件：主业应处于充分竞争行业和领域的竞争类企业；股权结构合理，非公有资本股东所持股份原则上不低于10%，且公司董事会中有非公有资本股东推荐的董事；企业股东会、董事会、监事会、经理层健全，董事会运作规范高效；企业的营业收入和利润90%以上应来源于其所在出资监管机构一级企业的外部市场。

本次方案明确优先支持人才资本和技术要素贡献占比较高的转制科研院所、高新技术企业、科技服务型企业开展员工持股试点。明确试点企业需营业收入和利润90%以上来源于所在企业集团外部市场，表明对试点企业的要求严格，必须做到真正的市场化。这将进一步推进上海国资国企改革的纵深发展，为未来国企不断深化创新改革开辟新的途径。

5.2 国务院批复西部大开发“十三五”规划

国务院正式批复同意国家发展改革委组织编制的《西部大开发“十三五”规划》。《规划》对“十三五”时期西部大开发进行了全面部署，明确提出了重点任务及重大工程。一是筑牢国家生态安全屏障；二是增加公共服务供给；三是打赢脱贫攻坚战；四是促进创新驱动发展；五是坚持开放引领发展；六是完善基础设施网络；七是培育现代产业体系；八是大力发展特色优势农业；九是推进新型城镇化。

5.3 习近平达沃斯论坛演讲：旗帜鲜明反对保护主义打贸易战的结果只能是两败俱伤

中国国家主席习近平在达沃斯论坛发表演讲，阐明中国立场，提出治理全球经济的“中国方案”，显示中国在世界经济领域的强大领导力。

1、演讲中指出了当前全球经济的三大突出矛盾：

a 全球增长动能不足，难以支撑世界经济持续稳定增长。

b 全球经济治理滞后，难以适应世界经济新变化。

c 全球发展失衡，难以满足人们对美好生活的期待。

2 、指出了四大解决办法：

a 坚持创新驱动，打造富有活力的增长模式

b 坚持协同联动，打造开放共赢的合作模式

c 坚持与时俱进，打造公正合理的治理模式

d 坚持公平包容，打造平衡普惠的发展模式

3、并向世界阐明了中国发展道路：

a 这是一条从本国国情出发确立的道路

b 这是一条把人民利益放在首位的道路

c 这是一条改革创新的道路

4、以及未来中国经济的前景：

a 中国将着力提升经济增长质量和效益

b 中国将不断激发增长动力和市场活力

c 中国将积极营造宽松有序的投资环境

d 中国将大力建设共同发展的对外开放格局

演讲还指出，把困扰世界的问题简单归咎于经济全球化，既不符合事实，也无助于问题解决。

预计未来5年，中国将进口8万亿美元商品、吸收6000亿美元外来投资，对外投资总额将达到7500亿美元，出境旅游将达到7亿人次。

5.4 国务院多措并举扩大对外开放积极利用外资

中国政府网显示，国务院关于扩大对外开放积极利用外资若干措施的通知，服务业重点放宽银行类金融机构、证券公司、证券投资基金管理公司、期货公司、保险机构、保险中介机构外资准入限制，推进电信、互联网、交通运输等领域有序开放；鼓励外商投资高端制造、智能制造、绿色制造等行业；支持外商投资企业拓宽融资渠道；外商投资企业可以依法依规在主板、中小企业板、创业板上市，在新三板挂牌，以及发行企业债券、公司债券、可转换债券和运用非金融企业债务融资工具进行融资。

5.5 证监会将调整再融资制度，抑制过度融资行为

1月20日，证监会表示将严格再融资审核标准和条件，解决非公开发行与其他融资方式失衡的结构性问题，发展可转债和优先股品种，抑制上市公司过度融资行为。

现行再融资制度从2006年开始实施，至今已逾十年。证监会新闻发言人张晓军表示，有必要对实施情况和效果进行评估，予以优化调整。

6 市场：负面因素退潮，市场迎来修复窗口

我们在周报《曙光乍现》中提出：“近期负面因素开始逐步退潮，市场正迎来修复的时间窗口，推荐通胀和改革主题”以及一二季度美元回调带来的黄金投资机会。两大投资机会正姗姗而来，如约而至。1）近期特朗普效应开始逆转，新兴市场压力缓解；股票市场基本面扎实，对公信贷超预期，出口延续改善，PPI回升带动制造业企业补库和企业利润改善，一二线地产补库需求带动12月地产投资超预期；经济短期暂稳；去产能加码扩围；央行加大流动性投放力度，钱荒退潮。预计股票市场将围绕通胀、改革和超跌成长股三大主线展开，受益于通胀、利率不敏感的行业有农业、食品饮料、公用事业、石化、银行、黄金等，关注农业供给侧改革（土地流转、种子）、国企混改、PPP、军工、去产能加码扩围、一路一带等改革主题。2）近期资金紧平衡，通胀上升，债市仍需等待，但钱荒退潮，已不必过度悲观。经济通胀可能在2-3季度前后重回下行通道，将为债市提供基本面环境。3）1月20日特朗普将正式入主白宫，考虑到特朗普“基建+减税+反移民”新政将面临诸多不确定性，市场将修正预期，1-2季度黄金可能有机会。4）房市调整预计将持续到2017年底-2018年，未来房地产投资回调幅度可能不深。

风险提示：汇率贬值引发资本流出失控；房地产调控矫枉过正；货币过紧；美联储加息；改革低于预期；债务风险。