MLF excess sequel helps stabilize the debt side

Securities Times Network October 13th

Securities Times reporter Liu Yucheng

On October 13, the central bank suspended the anti-repurchase operation and issued a notice saying that the one-year MLF (interim loan facility) operation was 498 billion yuan, and the operating rate was 3.20%. According to Wind data, a total of 439.5 billion yuan of MLF expired in October. On that day, 84 billion yuan of 1-year MLF expired, and next Tuesday and next Wednesday, respectively, 128 billion yuan and 227.5 billion yuan expired. This month's MLF sequel Over-investment of 58.5 billion yuan, a large sequel can ease the pressure of a large amount of funds due and the mid-month tax period next week, the market funds continue to loosen.

On the same day, the main repo rate continued to decline. Among the inter-bank pledged repo rates, 1-day varieties fell 5.72 basis points to 2.5442%, 7-day varieties fell 0.61 basis points to 2.8233%; Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) fell, and overnight varieties fell 5.2. The base point was reported at 2.650%, and the 7-day period fell 3.44 basis points to 2.8516%. After the holiday, the funds returned to the banking system, and the liquidity tension before the holiday gradually eased.

Regarding this over-the-top sequel MLF, Li Qilin, managing director and chief macro researcher of Lianxun Securities, believes that from a point of view, although the funds face is loose in the short term, it will face more negative factors, institutional sentiment in the second half of this month. Prudently, the central bank responded earlier to the policy tone that did not hinder control leverage. In addition, from the point of view, the central bank has been supplying a one-year “long money” after May, which is conducive to stabilizing the debt side. This month's capital fabrics will be tight and loose, and the structural tension will still exist.

On the same day, the news of the central bank’s over-renewed MLF boosted, and the treasury bond futures opened higher and oscillated. However, due to the unexpected foreign trade data, the treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF1712 fell 0.025% to 97.25; the 10-year treasury bond futures contract T1712 fell 0.03% to 94.615. In addition, the inter-bank cash yields maintained a narrow range of fluctuations. The yield of the National Open Active Bond 170210 with a remaining maturity of nearly 10 years increased by 1.23 basis points to 4.37%; the yield of the National Bond Active Bonds 170018 with a remaining maturity of nearly 10 years fell slightly by 0.25. Base point to 3.7255%.

Li Yong, chief analyst of the fixed income department of Northeast Securities, believes that historically, in October, the tax payment month, due to the tax shortage caused by the bank, the money market interest rate is expected to rise again in the middle of the month. This over-the-counter MLF is partly based on the consideration of the impact of hedging taxes, but the scale of this over-delivery is not large, and the tightness of the funds in October will still depend on the hedging of fiscal deposits by central bank operations next week.

The analyst believes that the recent market adjustment is relatively large. On the one hand, it stems from the continuous net withdrawal of the central bank's open market, exceeding the expectations of the market for the stability of the central bank; on the other hand, it is expected that the economic data in September is expected to rebound and the economic resilience is strong. . After the financial de-leverage has achieved significant results and the RMB exchange rate depreciation is expected to weaken, it is unlikely that the central bank’s monetary policy will be tightened again.

(Securities Times News Center)