The polyester industry will stop production of large-scale PTA operations will continue to climb
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The cost or continued increase was affected by OPEC's frozen production expectations, and crude oil prices rebounded strongly. Coupled with the arrival of the peak season of refined oil consumption, crude oil prices are expected to continue to rise.
As we all know, due to the serious excess capacity, the PTA price basically runs around the cost, and the rise and fall of the crude oil price has a significant impact on it.
From the current situation, the processing fee of PTA has already been 400 yuan / ton, which is much better than the previous low of 200 yuan / ton.
In the environment where crude oil prices continue to rise, the cost of PTA also increases. To maintain the current processing fee level, the PTA price will increase accordingly.
In the later period, the maintenance equipment was more than August, and the chemical fiber industry started to increase slightly. As of August 19, the PTA industry started to load 70%, up 3.78 percentage points from the same period of last month; the polyester industry started load was 82.4%, up 2.43 percentage points from the same month last month.
After August 19th, the PTA industry overhaul is still relatively strong. Tongkun 1.5 million tons / year of equipment began to stop on August 20, overhaul for 1 month; Hengli Petrochemical 2.2 million tons / year of the plant plan to stop around September 10, overhaul for two weeks; Hong Kong Petrochemical 1.5 million tons The equipment for the year is scheduled to be parked around September 6 and overhauled for two weeks; the equipment for Ningbo Taihua's 1.2 million tons/year is scheduled to stop at the beginning of September and overhaul for one week. If the above equipment is on schedule, the capacity involved in the inspection will reach 6.4 million tons per year in early September. In addition, there may still be equipment overhauls. As a result, there will be a phased supply shortage in the PTA industry.
At the same time, the maintenance of the polyester industry is significantly less. The amount of PTA supply reduction is greater than that of polyester, which plays a role in pushing up the price of PTA.
However, it should be noted that in order to guarantee the air quality during the G20 meeting, chemical fiber enterprises in East China will stop production. Although the specific shutdown plan has not yet been announced, it is expected that the polyester industry will be extensively overhauled from the end of August to the middle of September, which is the main reason for the high-load production of the polyester industry in the near future.
The amount of warehouse receipts has decreased
Due to overcapacity, once the price rises, the manufacturer will hedge in the futures market, and the selling pressure caused by a large number of warehouse receipts will restrict the price increase of PTA. However, near the delivery, the number of warehouse receipts has dropped significantly. As of August 19, the exchange's warehouse receipts were 146,922 contracts, a decrease of 45,342 contracts from the July 14 high, a decrease of 23.58%. The decline in the amount of registered warehouse receipts has weakened the suppression of futures prices.
In summary, the PTA market is well-aggregated: First, affected by OPEC's frozen production forecast, crude oil prices bottomed out, pushing up PTA costs; second, September PTA industry overhaul is greater, and current inventory remains At a low level, the staged supply shortage will support the PTA price; thirdly, as the volume of registered warehouse receipts declines, its suppression of the disk surface is weakened, creating a good space for the rise in PTA prices. However, it should be noted that due to the needs of the G20 summit, the polyester industry will be discontinued in large areas in the later period, which may cause a decline in demand for PTA. Based on the above judgment, the price of the later PTA will oscillate upward, and the target price will be 5,000 yuan/ton.