Reading the trend of China's textile and garment trade in the first half of the year: Stabilizing external demand

This reporter recently obtained from the Chinese textile import and export Chamber of Commerce, the latest data show that in June China's textile and apparel exports 24.02 billion US dollars, year on year decline again, a decline of 5.2%, of which textile exports 9.12 billion US dollars, down 3.7 percent, garment exports 14.9 billion The dollar fell by 6.2%.

In the first half of this year, textile and apparel exports totaled US$123.61 billion, down 3.7% year-on-year, of which textile exports were US$52.03 billion, down 1.6%, and apparel exports were US$71.58 billion, down 5.1%.

Relevant data show that although exports in the first half of the year have improved, the overall view is not optimistic. More prominent is the significant difference in import and export volume between Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong, China's key import and export provinces. Fujian has the largest year-on-year growth, while Zhejiang has the largest decline.

The reporter also noted that although the semi-annual report showed a negative growth trend, the cumulative decline in textile and apparel exports and single-month export volume in the first half of this year has narrowed compared with last year and the beginning of this year. It shows that foreign trade still has momentum support.

Data fluctuations are affected by the Spring Festival

Absolute values ​​are more informative

In 2015, China's textile and apparel import and export once appeared in the first six years since the global financial crisis in 2009, the first import and export double decline, and this phenomenon continued in the first half of this year, the overall pressure on the enterprise has not decreased.

Statistics show that in the first half of this year, China's textile and apparel exports declined in February, with exports falling by 27.8% year-on-year. The month of large increase occurred in March, and exports increased by 34.1% year-on-year.

In this regard, the relevant person of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles believes that the monthly import and export data of textiles and clothing in the first quarter of each year generally do not have too strong representativeness. China's Lunar New Year is concentrated in January or February each year. It is affected by the changes in trading volume before and after the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of its base is a normal phenomenon. Usually, before the Spring Festival, companies from all over the world are rushing to concentrate on shipments, resulting in a lighter export after the holiday. Therefore, the analysis of the semi-annual report should consider the main factor of the holiday base factor, especially the fluctuation of foreign trade transactions caused by the Spring Festival holiday. For the export in the first half of the year, the decline is also good, and the growth is all compared with the same period of last year. From the perspective of technical operation, the absolute value of import and export is more reflective of industry problems than the relative value. In addition, even if the reason for the change from the year-on-year variable is measured, it is generally combined with the data of the same period of the past three years.

Some analysts believe that the export growth in February 2015, so affected by the high base year-on-year, coupled with the obvious improvement in the export environment, exports fell sharply 27.8% in February this year. Professional analysts believe that the import and export data of foreign trade is normal with the ups and downs of policy or holidays, so it is not too nervous. The key issue is how the export enterprises can improve their internal strengths. How can the industry better integrate and optimize the supply chain? On the basis of ensuring stable exports, we must focus on stabilizing the export market share and optimizing the export structure of the industry.

Fujian increased Zhejiang

Regional export uneven heating and cooling

Specific to the various regions of the country, the difference in export situation in the first half of this year is still relatively obvious.

The data shows that the import and export volume of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong, the key foreign trade provinces in China, is quite different.

From January to May this year, the import and export volume of textiles and garments in Guangdong Province increased by 2.5% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 5.23% year-on-year; the import and export volume of textiles and garments in Fujian Province increased by 8.35% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 9.74% year-on-year; The import and export volume of garments decreased by 3.24% year-on-year, of which exports decreased by 2.73% year-on-year; the total import and export of textiles and garments in Jiangsu Province decreased by 0.92% year-on-year, of which exports decreased by 0.21% year-on-year; the total import and export volume of textiles and garments in Shandong Province increased by 2.2% year-on-year. Exports increased by 2.47% year-on-year.

Looking at the above five most representative foreign trade import and export data, it can be seen that from January to May this year, Fujian's total import and export volume and export volume increased the most, followed by Guangdong and Shandong. The largest decline in total import and export volume and export volume was in Zhejiang Province, followed by Jiangsu Province.

Statistics on the export of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shandong to major markets such as the European Union , the United States, Japan and ASEAN found that there are three major characteristics: First, Fujian’s textile exports to ASEAN increased sharply in the first five months of this year. 45.6%, accounting for 23% of the country's total exports to ASEAN; second, Zhejiang has been the leader in China's major exports to the EU and the United States in recent years, compared with previous years, Zhejiang and the United States textiles from January to May this year. The growth rate of garment exports narrowed significantly, with a slight increase of 1.3% in the EU and 4.2% in the US. Third, the foreign trade development of private enterprises in Fujian Province maintained a good momentum, while the foreign trade development performance of foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises was slightly weak.

In response to the above data, analysts from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles believe that due to the lack of significant recovery in the economy of major economies in the world, the demand for major markets lacks growth momentum. Although textile and apparel exports continued to grow in the second quarter, with the expansion of the year-on-year base, The increase has gradually narrowed. The current severe and complicated foreign trade situation has caused large downward pressure on textile and apparel exports in the second half of the year, and there is little possibility of rapid growth.

However, the following three positive factors can lead to a steady trend in textile and apparel exports or a small increase. First, the export base was relatively low in the second half of last year. Second, the renminbi has recently accelerated its depreciation against the US dollar. Third, the measures to stabilize foreign trade have been gradually implemented, and the ability of enterprises to resist their own pressure has increased.

Export-oriented private enterprises contribute greatly

"Zhejiang Blue" forced the transformation

Why is the import and export of textiles and clothing in Fujian from January to May this year? Why is Fujian's exports to ASEAN growing year on year?

Mao Xiaokang, deputy secretary-general of the Fujian Textile Industry Association, said in an interview: "The textile and garment private enterprises have always been the mainstay of Fujian's export growth and have been actively transforming under the pressure of deep pressure. Fujian is a major province of chemical fiber production and exports to ASEAN. Very large. Especially for the export of chemical fiber yarns such as filaments, private enterprises have invested heavily in research and development, actively practicing machine au pair and organizing smart production."

Fujian Huafeng Group is a textile enterprise that provides fabrics for sports shoes. The research and development funds are maintained at an annual rate of 60%, accounting for 8% of the main business. From January to May this year, Fujian exports ranked the top 10 textile companies of Jinjiang peak Weaving Co., Ltd., through the intelligent transformation of equipment, reducing the number of employment 64%. Another ranked the top 10 exports of textile enterprises in Fujian Fujian Billion Polymerization Fiber Industry Co., Ltd., a dedicated brand and intellectual property management offices, increase their own intellectual property rights product development and production.

Southeast Asia has long been an important area for Fujian's import and export trade, the introduction of foreign investment and the implementation of the “ going out ” strategy. Accompanied 21st century maritime Silk Road core area, to promote free trade pilot area of Fujian to ASEAN trade continued to grow. According to the reporter, the trade in textiles and clothing between Fujian and ASEAN is increasing year by year. Statistics show that from the perspective of growth rate, Fujian's import and export growth rate to ASEAN is far ahead of its major trading partners. At present, ASEAN has become the largest market for textile and garment exports in Fujian Province.

The Hangzhou Textile Industry Association believes that the study of textile and apparel export data changes in Zhejiang and Jiangsu should also take into account some statistical technical issues: “There is also an error in interpreting industry problems only through regional data. Zhejiang Ningbo is a planned city, Zhejiang The province's import and export statistics do not include Ningbo, a textile and garment foreign trade key area; while Shanghai is a free trade zone , many manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang set up trade and marketing companies in Shanghai, and the impact on Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile and apparel foreign trade import and export statistics is not small. ."

From the end of last year, Zhejiang Province under great efforts to rectify the printing and dyeing enterprises -1.html "> printing and dyeing enterprises, and actively create" Zhejiang Blue "Secretary-General Keqiao District Shaoxing City Printing and Dyeing Industry Association Chen Quansheng said:." There are 20 million people engaged in Keqiao In the textile industry, printing and dyeing capacity accounts for more than 30% of the country. Since the end of last year, the dyeing tanks that have been shut down in large areas in Zhejiang Province are mainly concentrated here. This carpet-style action to protect "Zhejiang Blue" forced textile and garment export enterprises to eliminate backward production capacity and transform and upgrade .